Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gomes grounded out to first, Happ scored, Swanson to second, Bellinger to third.10–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking9–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 39–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 29–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 5Canario tripled to right, Candelario scored.9–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 4Bellinger doubled to right, Suzuki scored, Happ to third.8–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 4Happ singled to left, Morel scored, Suzuki to second.7–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 2Santana homered to left center (428 feet).6–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 2Perkins homered to left center (422 feet), Monasterio scored.6–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 1Taylor grounded out to third, Santana scored.6–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 1Adames doubled to center, Canha scored and Contreras scored, Santana to third.6–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 1Wisdom homered to center (394 feet).6–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Gomes homered to center (408 feet), Suzuki scored, Bellinger scored and Swanson scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Morel homered to left (431 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −13 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 48–315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 5–6 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.