Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryce JarvisPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, McCarthy scored.8–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 7J. Abreu homered to left center (403 feet), Tucker scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Tucker tripled to right. Tucker scored.6–0
- 2Tucker hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Peña singled to right, J. Abreu scored, Brantley to second.4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Brantley grounded into fielder's choice to first, Alvarez scored on error, J. Abreu safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Rivera, J. Abreu safe at third on error.3–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Bregman homered to left center (393 feet), Altuve scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- HOU +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Kyle Nelson: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +1 Elo | ARI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3050–30 | Road vs home | 43–3713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.