Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker doubled to center, Carroll scored and Pham scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 4Moreno homered to center (425 feet).4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Marte homered to right (377 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Carroll homered to right center (444 feet), Perdomo scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Taylor homered to left (403 feet), Donaldson scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Santana singled to right, Yelich scored, Contreras to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Fair odds
- MIL -121
- ARI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.7 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +56 Elo | MIL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 4–2 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.