Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan BrasierPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hernández reached on infield single to second, Muncy scored, Taylor to second, Martinez to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (387 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Martinez homered to right center (372 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Pham scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Moreno grounded out to shortstop, Marte scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored, Marte to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Fair odds
- LAD -126
- ARI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +58 Elo | LAD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 6–8 LAD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.