San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pérez homered to left (385 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Moncada homered to right center (415 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 6Grisham doubled to center, Batten scored and Sullivan scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to right, Batten scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Fair odds
- SD -110
- CHW +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +7 | SD: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +78 Elo | SD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 3035–43 | Road vs home | 31–4728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.