San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Pedro AvilaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Zach RemillardBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Profar singled to center, Azocar scored.2–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Remillard singled to right, Andrus scored.1–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 10Kim hit sacrifice fly to right, Rosario scored.1–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Fair odds
- SD -113
- CHW +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −25 | SD: Pedro Avila: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHW: Jose Urena: team allows 1.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +89 Elo | SD 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 19th of 3037–43 | Road vs home | 31–4929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–0 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.