Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani singled to left, Lux scored, Betts to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Betts singled to left, Outman scored, Lux to second.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Lux grounded into fielder's choice to first, T. Hernández scored, Outman safe at second on fielding error by first baseman Cronenworth.3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8En. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to left, Muncy scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Campusano grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Machado scored, Profar out at second, Kim to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Heyward hit sacrifice fly to right, T. Hernández scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Bogaerts singled to center, Wade scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML LAD -210 / SD +175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -186
- SD +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 3.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −16 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +40 Elo | LAD 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 9–4 SD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.