Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-4
- Lance LynnPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hernández singled to left, Smith scored, Taylor to second.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Taylor singled to left, Muncy scored, Smith to second.1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Moreno homered to left center (420 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Walker homered to left (395 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Marte homered to right (428 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Perdomo homered to right center (383 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Fair odds
- LAD -101
- ARI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +17 Elo | LAD 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 4th of 3047–34 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 8–7 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.
- Oct 9ARI 4 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Oct 7ARI 11 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Aug 30ARI 0 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 29ARI 1 @ LAD 9Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 28ARI 4 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 9LAD 2 @ ARI 0Picked LAD 50%Hit
- Aug 8LAD 5 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 50%Hit
- Apr 9LAD 6 @ ARI 11Picked ARI 52%Hit