San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Graham PauleyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pauley homered to right (352 feet), Merrill scored and Azocar scored.9–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 39–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–6
- 9Rosario homered to left (355 feet), Profar scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 8Conforto homered to right center (380 feet), Slater scored, Chapman scored and Flores scored.9–1
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 39–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 29–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 19–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–1
- 8Flores singled to left, Soler scored, Chapman to second, Slater to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Lee homered to right center (406 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Profar doubled to left, Cronenworth scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Lee hit sacrifice fly to right, Murphy scored, Ahmed to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML SF +105 / SD -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- SD: Elo 56.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | SF: Jordan Hicks (no track record yet) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +47 Elo | SD 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3034–45 | Road vs home | 42–3713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 6–9 SD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.