San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman homered to left (424 feet), Soler scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to left (360 feet).6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Flores singled to center, Chapman scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Chapman doubled to center, Soler scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Tatis Jr. homered to left (441 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Machado homered to left (398 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Lee singled to center, Bailey scored, Ahmed to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Estrada singled to right, Flores scored, Conforto to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Chapman homered to center (407 feet), Wade Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML SF +120 / SD -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- SD: Elo 59.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -128
- SF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +65 Elo | SD 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3034–45 | Road vs home | 42–3713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 5–9 SD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.