San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Estrada doubled to left, Chapman scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Chapman grounded out to third, Wade Jr. scored, Conforto to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Tatis Jr. singled to left, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Conforto doubled to right, Lee scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Cronenworth singled to center, Bogaerts scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SD +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SF: Elo 48.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +12 Elo | SD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.112th of 30 |
| 24th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 6.628th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–6 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3–1 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–1 | 7–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 10–7 SF in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.