St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tatis Jr. homered to left center (443 feet).6–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 6Donovan homered to right (375 feet), Winn scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Merrill homered to left (369 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Goldschmidt singled to left, Donovan scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Contreras homered to center (419 feet), Arenado scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Arenado doubled to left, Donovan scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML STL +105 / SD -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- SD: Elo 57.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −1 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +51 Elo | SD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 7.55th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 6.823rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.3 | Margin | +0.713th of 30 |
| 16th of 181–3 | Road vs home | 2–27th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 3–3 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.