St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy homered to right center (420 feet), Taylor scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 8T. Hernández homered to left center (396 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6Outman grounded out to pitcher, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to second, Taylor to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 6T. Hernández doubled to left, Ohtani scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Goldschmidt reached first base on catcher's interference, Walker scored, Donovan to second, Scott II to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Donovan hit by pitch, Contreras scored, Scott II to second, Walker to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Donovan singled to right, Scott II scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Goldschmidt singled to left, Scott II scored, Winn to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML STL +150 / LAD -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- STL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −36 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 1.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +35 Elo | LAD 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 6.87th of 30 |
| 21st of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +1.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–12nd of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 4–6 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.