Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RomPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Winn singled to right, Baker scored and Palacios scored, Fermín to third.6–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–13
- 8Fermín walked, Herrera scored, Baker to second, Palacios to third.6–13
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 46–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–12
- 8Baker walked, Walker scored, Palacios to second, Herrera to third.6–12
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 46–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–11
- 7Marte homered to left (382 feet).6–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–11
- 5Marte doubled to center, Encarnacion-Strand scored and Stephenson scored.5–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 5Stephenson doubled to left, Steer scored, Encarnacion-Strand to third.3–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–11
- 5Senzel homered to left center (396 feet).2–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–11
- 4De La Cruz singled to left, Marte scored, Friedl to second.1–11
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–11
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–11
- 3Goldschmidt doubled to left, Edman scored.0–11
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–11
- 2Fermín doubled to left, Herrera scored and Walker scored.0–10
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–10
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 2Nootbaar homered to right center (431 feet), Edman scored and Goldschmidt scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- CIN +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −10 | CIN: Connor Phillips: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Drew Rom: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +7 Elo | CIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3044–35 | Road vs home | 32–4526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 6–5 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.