Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (369 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Friedl singled to left, India scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Friedl homered to right center (407 feet), India scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Delay singled to center, Davis scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Suwinski homered to center (399 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Fair odds
- CIN -115
- PIT +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.8 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −14 | PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +28 Elo | CIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 37–4323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 8–4 CIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.