Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Connor PhillipsPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Farmer doubled to center, Kepler scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 12–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Votto singled to right, Steer scored and Senzel scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Steer singled to center, India scored, Friedl to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Kirilloff homered to left center (386 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Benson homered to center (408 feet), Marte scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Lewis homered to center (424 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Benson hit sacrifice fly to center, Votto scored, Marte to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Marte singled to center, Stephenson scored, Marte to second, Votto to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Connor Phillips: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +13 Elo | MIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 3036–39 | Road vs home | 36–3922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.