Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 14 K
Scoring summary
- 9Polanco singled to right, Farmer scored and Vázquez scored, Jeffers to second.5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Farmer singled to right, Castro scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Julien singled to right, Vázquez scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Maile singled to center, Benson scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Castro homered to right (369 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (393 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Friedl singled to center, Benson scored, India to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -108
- MIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +6 Elo | MIN 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–40 | Road vs home | 37–4022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.