Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4
- Ben LivelyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Julien scored on Law wild pitch, Kepler to second on wild pitch by Law, Stevenson to third on wild pitch by Law.7–0
- 8Julien scored on Law wild pitch, Kepler to second on wild pitch by Law, Stevenson to third on wild pitch by Law.7–0
- 7Castro homered to right (352 feet), Kepler scored.6–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Polanco singled to right, Farmer scored, Julien to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Julien singled to right, Wallner scored, Farmer to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Jeffers homered to left (390 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Wallner singled to right, Kepler scored, Jeffers to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Fair odds
- CIN -108
- MIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Fernando Cruz: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +14 Elo | MIN 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 37–3922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.