Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suwinski hit sacrifice fly to center, Joe scored.7–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 7Andujar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Reynolds scored on error, Andujar safe at second on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz, Hayes out at second.6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7Reynolds singled to left, Bae scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 6Friedl homered to center (394 feet), Maile scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Rodríguez homered to center (431 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Triolo homered to center (415 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Marte reached on infield single to shortstop, Steer scored, Votto to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Votto grounded into fielder's choice to second, Friedl scored, Encarnacion-Strand out at second, Steer to third.2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | PIT: Andre Jackson: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +49 Elo | CIN 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 3034–41 | Road vs home | 37–4122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 6–4 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.