Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Alfonso Rivas IIIBatting3-5, 5 RBI
- Dauri MoretaPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Connor PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fraley grounded out to second, Votto scored, Friedl to third.13–12
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–12
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking13–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 213–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 113–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–11
- 8Encarnacion-Strand singled to center, Martini scored, Steer to second.13–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–10
- 8Martini grounded into fielder's choice to second, De La Cruz scored, India out at second.13–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 113–9
- 8Bae doubled to center, Rivas scored and Triolo scored.13–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–9
- 8Rivas singled to center, Suwinski scored, Triolo to third.11–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–9
- 8Suwinski singled to right, Reynolds scored, Hayes to second.10–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–9
- 7Rivas doubled to right, Rodríguez scored, Suwinski scored and Triolo scored.9–9
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 6Reynolds homered to right (350 feet), Bae scored and Palacios scored.6–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 6Palacios singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Bae to third.3–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 6Bae singled to right, Triolo scored, Rodríguez to third.2–9
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Fair odds
- CIN -117
- PIT +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Connor Phillips: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +43 Elo | CIN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 19th of 3035–41 | Road vs home | 37–4222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 7–4 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.