Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Jose TenaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer grounded out to shortstop, India scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8India doubled to left, Martini scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Friedl singled to center, India scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Tena singled to center, Rocchio scored, Straw to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Rocchio singled to center, Freeman scored, Rocchio thrown out at second.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Freeman singled to center, Laureano scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +6 Elo | CLE 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.38th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3043–34 | Road vs home | 41–3918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.