Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- John MeansPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Giménez homered to right (406 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Santander singled to center, McCann scored, Rutschman to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Santander doubled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -107
- CLE +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | BAL: John Means: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3050–29 | Road vs home | 41–3615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–4 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.