Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fry doubled to center, Brennan scored and Giménez scored.8–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Hicks doubled to left, McKenna scored and O'Hearn scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 7Brennan singled to right, J. Naylor scored, Giménez to third.6–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 7Santander singled to left, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second, Santander to second, Rutschman safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.6–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 4Calhoun hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.5–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 4J. Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Straw scored, Ramírez to second, Ramírez safe at third on fielding error by shortstop Henderson.5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 4Ramírez singled to center, Bo Naylor scored, Straw to third.5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3Santander singled to center, Rutschman scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Rutschman grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Henderson scored on throwing error by pitcher Bieber, Rutschman second.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Henderson doubled to right, Urías scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Straw singled to center, Brennan scored.2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Fair odds
- BAL -110
- CLE +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +41 Elo | BAL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3050–28 | Road vs home | 40–3615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.