Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-4
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter GaddisPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arias grounded out to pitcher, Laureano scored, Bo Naylor to second, Straw to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Bo Naylor reached on infield single to second, Giménez scored, Straw to second, Laureano to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Laureano walked, J. Naylor scored, Giménez to second, Freeman to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 42–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8O'Hearn doubled to right, Rutschman scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 8Santander grounded out to shortstop, Urías scored, Rutschman to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5J. Naylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Ramírez singled to center, Bo Naylor scored, Kwan to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -110
- CLE +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Hunter Gaddis: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +35 Elo | BAL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3050–27 | Road vs home | 39–3616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.