Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4
- Eli MorganPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mullins singled to right, Hicks scored, Hays to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Calhoun grounded out to second, Ramírez scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Rutschman doubled to left, Mateo scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Santander walked, Westburg scored, Rutschman to second, Henderson to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 43–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Mateo grounded out to second, Mullins scored, Westburg to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Westburg doubled to left, Kjerstad scored, Mullins to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3051–29 | Road vs home | 41–3715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–4 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.