Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz homered to right center (467 feet), Marte scored.11–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–7
- 6Friedl homered to right (367 feet).9–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 5Maile singled to left, Votto scored and De La Cruz scored.8–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 5De La Cruz singled to center, Encarnacion-Strand scored, De La Cruz to second, Votto to third.6–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 4J. Naylor singled to left, Bo Naylor scored, Ramírez to second, Straw to third.5–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 4De La Cruz homered to center (420 feet).5–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 3Giménez homered to right (419 feet).4–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 3Calhoun homered to right center (396 feet), Ramírez scored.4–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 48%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −24 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Lucas Giolito: team allows 1.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +12 Elo | CIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 6th of 3042–34 | Road vs home | 41–3817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.