Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Richie PalaciosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew SuarezPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte reached on infield single to third, De La Cruz scored on error, Marte safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Fermín.19–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play19–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 118–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul18–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking18–2
- 8De La Cruz tripled to center, Senzel scored and Stephenson scored.18–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play18–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 116–2
- 8Fairchild scored on throwing error by shortstop Winn and India scored, Stephenson safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Winn, Stephenson safe at second on error, Senzel safe at third on error.16–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 114–2
- 4Stephenson homered to left center (428 feet), Martini scored.14–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play14–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking12–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 312–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 212–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 4Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (418 feet), India scored and Friedl scored.12–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 39–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 4Friedl doubled to right, Benson scored, India to third.9–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 4Marte homered to left center (398 feet).8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 3Palacios homered to right (373 feet), Fermín scored.7–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 2Steer homered to left (382 feet).7–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 2India homered to left center (389 feet), Benson scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +17 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Jake Woodford: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +23 Elo | STL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–35 | Road vs home | 32–4426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 5–5 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.