St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored, Gorman to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Gorman doubled to right, Winn scored and Donovan scored, Goldschmidt to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Rojas homered to left (369 feet).0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4T. Hernández homered to left center (370 feet), Smith scored and Muncy scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2T. Hernández homered to right (366 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Betts homered to left (392 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML STL +185 / LAD -225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.1%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- STL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +2 | STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +78 Elo | LAD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3036–45 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 3–5 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.