St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Muncy singled to right, Betts scored, Freeman to second.1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Outman singled to right, T. Hernández scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 4Goldschmidt homered to left (401 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 3Freeman homered to center (409 feet), Ohtani scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Betts homered to left (406 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Freeman singled to right, Betts scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 69%
- ML STL +205 / LAD -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.2%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -218
- STL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +86 Elo | LAD 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3036–45 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 3–4 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.