Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick MartiniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fairchild doubled to left, Benson scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 3Fermín singled to center, Baker scored, Palacios to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Baker doubled to left, Walker scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Walker doubled to center, Edman scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3De La Cruz doubled to center, Fairchild scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Palacios scored, Knizner to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Martini homered to center (425 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- CIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.0 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +9 Elo | CIN 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 7th of 3044–36 | Road vs home | 33–4526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 6–6 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.