St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Goldschmidt grounded out to shortstop, Scott II scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 9Muncy singled to center, Freeman scored, Smith to third.5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Betts homered to left center (388 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Smith singled to left, Betts scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Donovan hit a ground rule double, Crawford scored, Siani scored and Siani scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Carpenter scored on a balk, Crawford to second on a balk, Burleson to third on a balk.3–2
- 7Carpenter scored on a balk, Crawford to second on a balk, Burleson to third on a balk.3–2
- 7Burleson singled to right, Arenado scored, Carpenter to second.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Herrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Gorman scored, Arenado to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Smith singled to left, Ohtani scored, Smith to second, Freeman to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML STL +185 / LAD -225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- STL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −41 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 2.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +37 Elo | LAD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3036–45 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 3–6 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.