San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael KingPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Campusano singled to right, Kim scored.4–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–13
- 7Matos grounded out to shortstop, Wade Jr. scored.4–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–12
- 7Chapman grounded out to shortstop, Soler scored, Wade Jr. to third.3–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–12
- 4Estrada homered to left center (409 feet), Conforto scored.2–12
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–12
- 3Machado doubled to right, Bogaerts scored and Merrill scored.0–12
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–12
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–10
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–10
- 3Merrill doubled to left, Pauley scored.0–10
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–10
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 2Kim homered to left (357 feet), Cronenworth scored and Machado scored.0–9
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 2Cronenworth doubled to right, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to third.0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Campusano homered to right (329 feet), Machado scored and Kim scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Machado doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Bogaerts scored, Tatis Jr. to third on passed ball by Bailey.0–1
- 1Bogaerts scored, Tatis Jr. to third on passed ball by Bailey.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML SF +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- SD: Elo 56.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- SF +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | SF: Daulton Jefferies (no track record yet) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +46 Elo | SD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 307.0 | Runs scored | 6.410th of 30 |
| 18th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 7.426th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 6th of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–28th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 7–9 SD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.