St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Herrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Goldschmidt scored, Contreras to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Arenado grounded into fielder's choice to third, Donovan scored on fielding error by catcher Campusano, Contreras to second, Goldschmidt to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Contreras homered to right center (420 feet), Donovan scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Wade doubled to right, Campusano scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Winn hit sacrifice fly to left, Scott II scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Campusano singled to center, Profar scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML STL +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- SD: Elo 57.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- STL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +53 Elo | SD 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 6.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 6.724th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 14th of 182–3 | Road vs home | 2–310th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–1–2 | 5–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–1–2 | 5–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–3 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.