San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored.3–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 7Smith singled to center, Freeman scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Freeman doubled to center, Betts scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Flores singled to right, Wade Jr. scored, Soler thrown out at third.2–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6T. Hernández homered to left center (431 feet), Freeman scored and Muncy scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Conforto homered to right (384 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML SF +175 / LAD -210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -186
- SF +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −18 | SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +63 Elo | LAD 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 306.3 | Runs scored | 6.58th of 30 |
| 24th of 307.0 | Runs allowed | 5.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.312th of 30 |
| 11th of 182–2 | Road vs home | 3–12nd of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 6–7 LAD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.