San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soler homered to center (452 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Ohtani homered to right center (430 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Conforto singled to right, Wade Jr. scored and Soler scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Rojas homered to left (383 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3T. Hernández singled to left, Smith scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Smith doubled to left, Ohtani scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Bailey homered to right center (393 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to second, Muncy scored, Taylor out at second, E. Hernández to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML SF +195 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.3%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -208
- SF +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +19 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +103 Elo | LAD 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 6.56th of 30 |
| 28th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 4.818th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.89th of 30 |
| 14th of 182–4 | Road vs home | 5–12nd of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | — | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 6–0 | 5–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–0 | 5–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–9 LAD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.