San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jorge SolerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Estrada grounded into fielder's choice to third, Conforto scored, Flores out at second.4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 6Soler homered to left center (384 feet).3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4E. Hernández singled to left, T. Hernández scored and Lux scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Lux doubled to center, Muncy scored, T. Hernández to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Betts homered to left center (407 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Conforto singled to center, Chapman scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Ahmed singled to left, Flores scored, Yastrzemski to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Freeman singled to right, Betts scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML SF +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- SF +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −1 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Ryan Brasier (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +68 Elo | LAD 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 6.74th of 30 |
| 29th of 307.2 | Runs allowed | 4.920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.98th of 30 |
| 15th of 182–3 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | — | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–0 | 4–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–0 | 4–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–8 LAD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.