St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Padres- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goldschmidt grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Scott II scored on throwing error by second baseman Bogaerts, Donovan out at second, Goldschmidt to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Higashioka homered to left (403 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Arenado singled to right, Contreras scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Tatis Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Azocar scored, Bogaerts out at second.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Profar walked, Bogaerts scored, Kim to second, Tatis Jr. to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML STL +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- SD: Elo 57.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- STL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +50 Elo | SD 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 6.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 6.525th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 183–3 | Road vs home | 2–410th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–2 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–2–2 | 5–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–2–2 | 5–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–3 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.