San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-3
- Keaton WinnPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 1Profar homered to right (347 feet), Bogaerts scored, Machado scored and Kim scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SD +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- SF: Elo 46.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.9 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −10 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +27 Elo | SD 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.912th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 6.028th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.122nd of 30 |
| 26th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4–1 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 10–8 SF in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.