Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-3
- Kai-Wei TengPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas walked, Winker scored, Meneses to second, Thomas to third.8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 48–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 37–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 9Thomas singled to left, Young scored, Winker to second.7–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Vargas doubled to right, Gallo scored, Ruiz to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Thomas homered to left (402 feet), Winker scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 2Lipscomb stole home, L. García Jr. stole second.3–1
- 2Lipscomb stole home, L. García Jr. stole second.3–1
- 2L. García Jr. reached on infield single to first, Vargas scored, Lipscomb to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Lipscomb singled to left, Ruiz scored, Vargas to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Wade Jr. doubled to left, Lee scored on throwing error by left fielder Winker.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SF 65%
- ML WSH +175 / SF -210
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SF: Elo 60.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -186
- WSH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +31 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Blake Snell: team allows 1.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +73 Elo | SF 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.425th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −1.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–1 SF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.