Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harper singled to right, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Schwarber singled to right, Stott scored and Castellanos scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Marsh hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML PHI -200 / WSH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −11 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 28th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 6.327th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −1.824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–6 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.