Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Trey LipscombBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (387 feet).5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Benson homered to center (411 feet), India scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Rosario scored, Lipscomb to second, L. García Jr. to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Lipscomb homered to center (384 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Thomas singled to left, L. García Jr. scored and Lipscomb scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Steer singled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Benson doubled to right, Martini scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3India grounded out to shortstop, Steer scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Abrams homered to right center (429 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 61%
- ML WSH +145 / CIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 61.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -154
- WSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +26 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 1.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +78 Elo | CIN 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.123rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 20th of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 38–4322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.