Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Jackson RutledgePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Dylan DoddPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ozuna homered to right center (385 feet).10–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 210–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–8
- 9Young singled to left, L. García scored and Smith scored, Millas to third.10–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 9Millas walked, Chavis scored, Smith to second, L. García to third.8–8
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 48–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 37–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 8Arcia singled to center, Rosario scored.7–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Abrams reached on infield single to shortstop, Call scored.7–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 8Young grounded out to second, Vargas scored, Call to third.6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 7Harris II reached on infield single to second, Albies scored and Lopez scored, Ozuna to second.5–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -147
- WSH +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.9 – 5.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −8 | WSH: Jackson Rutledge: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Dylan Dodd: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +101 Elo | ATL 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3036–44 | Road vs home | 52–283rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–8 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.