Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Ozuna homered to center (432 feet), Albies scored and Olson scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Riley singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1L. García doubled to center, Meneses scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Meneses singled to right, Ruiz scored, Meneses to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Ruiz doubled to right, Abrams scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Fair odds
- ATL -148
- WSH +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 5.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +122 Elo | ATL 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3036–43 | Road vs home | 51–283rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–7 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.