Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Carter KieboomBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Allan WinansPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ruiz scored on error, Alu safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Riley, L. García to second.10–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 7L. García grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Meneses scored, Ruiz safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Lopez.9–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 7Thomas homered to center (440 feet).8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 6Smith homered to left center (405 feet), Kieboom scored.7–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Ruiz homered to right (400 feet).5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Albies tripled to center, Pillar scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Pillar reached on infield single to second, Wall scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Wall reached on infield single to second, Lopez scored on throwing error by pitcher Ferrer, Wall to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Rosario singled to right, Ozuna scored, Rosario out stretching at second.4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Alu homered to center (416 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Kieboom homered to left (381 feet), Ruiz scored and L. García scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Acuña Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lopez scored, Wall out at third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 69%
- Fair odds
- ATL -152
- WSH +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Allan Winans: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +138 Elo | ATL 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.410th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3035–43 | Road vs home | 51–273rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 3–7 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.