Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-4
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hays singled to left, Mullins scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Westburg walked, Santander scored, Henderson to second, Hicks to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 41–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Rutschman singled to right, Mateo scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Alu singled to left, Smith scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Rutschman homered to left center (395 feet), Hays scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 67%
- Fair odds
- BAL -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | 0 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +123 Elo | BAL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 21st of 3035–42 | Road vs home | 46–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.