Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Reds- Luke MaileBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rosario hit sacrifice fly to left, Nuñez scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 9Ruiz hit by pitch, Robles scored, Gallo to second, Nuñez to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 9Winker singled to center, Abrams scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 8Martini doubled to right, Candelario scored and Thompson scored, Martini to third.4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Ruiz homered to right (397 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Abrams scored on Cruz wild pitch.3–4
- 7Abrams scored on Cruz wild pitch.3–4
- 5India singled to center, Benson scored, India to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Maile homered to right center (374 feet), Fairchild scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Meneses hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Candelario homered to left (379 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Ruiz reached on infield single to shortstop, Winker scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML WSH +150 / CIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 58.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 5.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +3 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +61 Elo | CIN 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.123rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 20th of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 38–4322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 3–5 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.