Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Eddie RosarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Reds- Nick MartiniBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stephenson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, De La Cruz scored, Steer out at third.2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Rosario homered to right (389 feet), Meneses scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 30–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 20–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 3Martini homered to right center (389 feet), De La Cruz scored and Steer scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Steer doubled to right, Fraley scored, De La Cruz to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Martini homered to right center (405 feet), Steer scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Steer singled to right, Fraley scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 58%
- ML WSH +130 / CIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | 0 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Frankie Montas (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.123rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 20th of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 38–4322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.