Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Joey GalloBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas doubled to left, L. García Jr. scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Suwinski homered to right (402 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Abrams singled to right, L. García Jr. scored and Lipscomb scored, Abrams to second, Robles to third.2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2L. García Jr. doubled to left, Rosario scored, Lipscomb to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Gallo homered to right center (447 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Taylor singled to left, McCutchen scored and Suwinski scored, Tellez to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -150 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −13 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 7.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+3.6 | Margin | −2.526th of 30 |
| 1st of 185–0 | Road vs home | 0–116th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 6–2 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.