Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Reynolds hit a ground rule double, Joe scored and Suwinski scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Joe doubled to right, Taylor scored, Suwinski to third.7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Suwinski singled to right, Cruz scored, Taylor to third.6–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6J. Sánchez singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Burger to second.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Cruz scored and Triolo scored on throwing error by first baseman Bell, Taylor second.5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4J. Sánchez singled to left, Burger scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Burger doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Hayes singled to left, Joe scored, Reynolds to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Joe doubled to left, Taylor scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 50%
- ML PIT -110 / MIA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 52.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | PIT: Jared Jones (no track record yet) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +18 Elo | MIA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 46–359th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 4–5 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.