Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 12Triolo singled to right, Hayes scored, Cruz thrown out at home.6–5
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Cruz homered to left center (384 feet).5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7McCutchen grounded out to shortstop, Taylor scored, Hayes to second, Reynolds to third.4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Olivares homered to center (413 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Burger hit sacrifice fly to center, Bell scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Burger singled to left, De La Cruz scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, Burger to second.2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Reynolds homered to left center (406 feet), Joe scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Anderson doubled to right, Burger scored, J. Sánchez to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2J. Sánchez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Chisholm Jr. scored on error, Burger safe at second on error by second baseman Triolo.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML PIT +110 / MIA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +28 Elo | MIA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 46–359th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–5 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.